Silver Ingot Exports Hit New High Again in October, Tight Domestic Supply Intensifies Premiums, Making Reductions Difficult [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, exports of unwrought silver ingots with a purity ≥99.99% reached 652.8 mt in October 2025, up 19.45% MoM and 76.58% YoY. Among these, silver ingots exported under the processing trade amounted to 478.59 mt, accounting for approximately 91.75% of the total. Cumulative silver ingot exports from January to October 2025 totaled 4,291.17 mt, an increase of 21.12% compared to the same period last year.

Regarding export profitability, losses on silver ingot exports began to narrow gradually since September, and in October, a rare occurrence of profitability under Ordinary Trade was even observed. According to SMM, multiple smelters indicated that they prioritized large ingot export demand during October-November, with some producers maintaining only basic long-term contract supply domestically and suspending spot order quotations for several consecutive weeks. It was not until late November that these smelters with export processing qualifications began offering limited spot order quotes in the domestic market.

Although domestic industrial demand for silver ingots weakened in November compared to October—partly due to pessimistic outlooks among some silver nitrate manufacturers regarding December PV industry orders, leading to a slight demand decline—the pace of supply reduction outpaced the demand drop in the short term, owing to sustained export activities from September to October. This resulted in a continued destocking trend in social inventory for multiple weeks. Amid tight spot market availability, holders maintained high TD premiums, while enterprises without long-term supply guarantees had to pay additional premiums to procure needed ingots, making it difficult for spot premiums to pull back. Furthermore, with the approach of late November and the upcoming annual long-term contract premium and discount negotiations for the new year, silver ingot supply and export conditions are not expected to ease in the near term, which may influence many smelters' willingness to adjust premium and discount quotes in their 2026 long-term contracts.